What Are the Odds? Introducing Kids to Probability

My daughter's had asthma for four years now, and it'syou have their attention, you can open up the
a little nastier than I would like at times. Recently shediscussion in all sorts of ways:
was prescribed new medication, since her asthma- Chance of being struck by lightning in a given year: 1
wasn't being controlled by the conventional pairing ofin 6.2 million
steroid inhaler and emergency puffer. Since the new- Chance of a large asteroid hitting Earth: 1 every
meds came with pages and pages of cautions, I10,000 centuries
decided to sit myself down and read every word.- Chance of developing Type 2 diabetes as a child if
It was all going rather well until I hit the "paradoxicalyou're overweight and get little or no exercise: 1 in 3
effect."- Chance of picking six correct lottery numbers from 1
That's the name for a quirky though rare possibility that- 50: 1 in 15,890,700
this new medicine will actually do the opposite of what- Chance of developing cancer over your lifetime: 1 in 7
it's supposed to do and cause one heck of an asthma- Chance of being in a shopping-mall terrorist attack if
attack.terrorists target one mall per week for a year: 1 in a
But as it turned out, the odds were on her side.million
Odds are funny that way. All sorts of things that seem- Chance of finding a pearl inside an oyster: 1 in 12,000
scary actually have a very slim chance of occurring.Don't forget that kids may need help imagining very
Other threats that seem remote may be just roundlarge numbers. One tip is to ask them to think of a unit
the corner.as a second. For example, it would take about one
Has your child ever raised the possibility of an asteroidyear to count out loud to 15,890,700, allowing two
collision with Earth or a terrorist attack? Next time heseconds per number, (Which only goes to show that
or she does, seize the opportunity to talk about howonly a fool waits for the lottery.)
odds work. Probability is the likelihood of somethingIf you want a more detailed explanation of how
occurring. Odds are the likelihood of somethingprobability works, head on over to tge kids' zone on at
occurring rather than not occurring. Both are keythe National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).
mathematical concepts.They have great math games for kids of all ages and
A great way to get your kids hooked on probability iseven their own version of Are You Smarter Than a
to share some eye-opening numbers with them. Once5th Grader? (called Dare to Compare). Have fun!